This is part 2 of an extended essay about democracy in 2023, laying out the pessimistic case. Part 1 is here. There is no will of the people. Individuals have political needs, like freedom, prosperity and security, but no political will, because in general
Nov 28, 2023·edited Nov 28, 2023Liked by David Hugh-Jones
"Mass immigration to Britain started in the 1950s and 60s as the welfare state was coming into being. Mass immigration to the US restarted in 1965 as LBJ was creating the Great Society."
I wonder if it is that simple. Causal chain certainly involves all of welfare state, economic growth and migration, but directions of causality seem non-obvious to disentangle (such as, growing economy makes it both easier to sell the idea that the welfare state is possible and attract labor). Sweden started building the welfare state in the 1930s, with apex reached in the 1970s, and since then faced various cutbacks. Meanwhile the migration started in 1950s and 1960s and has continued ever since (first as a wave of industrial workers from neighboring Finland; later in from Yugoslavia and Third World, with waves in 1990s and 00s). In contrast, the economic development in Finland lacked some decades behind Sweden, and likewise the social welfare policies followed post-war, with the height reached in the 1980s. Yet here the immigration started really only in the 1990s, which is after the welfare state had operated a decade. And in Germany, Gastarbeiter are commonly seen connected to post-war economic growth and dearth of workforce than social policies in West Germany.
"Mass immigration to Britain started in the 1950s and 60s as the welfare state was coming into being. Mass immigration to the US restarted in 1965 as LBJ was creating the Great Society."
I wonder if it is that simple. Causal chain certainly involves all of welfare state, economic growth and migration, but directions of causality seem non-obvious to disentangle (such as, growing economy makes it both easier to sell the idea that the welfare state is possible and attract labor). Sweden started building the welfare state in the 1930s, with apex reached in the 1970s, and since then faced various cutbacks. Meanwhile the migration started in 1950s and 1960s and has continued ever since (first as a wave of industrial workers from neighboring Finland; later in from Yugoslavia and Third World, with waves in 1990s and 00s). In contrast, the economic development in Finland lacked some decades behind Sweden, and likewise the social welfare policies followed post-war, with the height reached in the 1980s. Yet here the immigration started really only in the 1990s, which is after the welfare state had operated a decade. And in Germany, Gastarbeiter are commonly seen connected to post-war economic growth and dearth of workforce than social policies in West Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Sweden#/media/File:Invandrare_utvandrare_Sverige_1850-2007.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Finland#/media/File:Allophones_in_Finland_1980-2011.jpg