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I'll take you up on that wager. Not that I think (mild) corporal punishment is necessarily bad, just that all punishment is misdirected. Punishment suppresses behaviour. Reinforcement strengthens behaviour. When you're suppressing, you're often likely to suppress the wrong behaviour. The classic example is if you punish a child for not doing their homework, they'll try to avoid coming to class. They might even develop more severe behavioural problems so you stop minding the homework. Reinforcement is targetted at a specific behaviour, and is therefore more effective.

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