Here’s Scott Alexander grading his Trump predictions, and then assessing his grading performance: According to my own judgment, I usually did better on predictions about race, and worse on other things. An optimistic take on this is that race has become so emotionally charged that most people have kind of crazy beliefs about it, which makes them easier to beat. A pessimistic take is that race has become so emotionally charged that everyone
“…there will be plenty of people to tell you so.” But you would do better if you can internalise them. And you should be open to the possibility that they are right and you are wrong, and being aware of biases can help with that.
“…there will be plenty of people to tell you so.” But you would do better if you can internalise them. And you should be open to the possibility that they are right and you are wrong, and being aware of biases can help with that.