That isn't a US/UK declaration from 2005, that is a US/UK declaration from 2003 announcing that in June 2004 they would replace the Coalition Provisional Authority, an unelected occupational government headed by Paul Bremer, with a unelected technocratic Iraqi government headed by Ayad Allawi who was tasked with setting up the actual elected government via elections before the end of 2005. This actually did happen within the planned timeline, but we didn't know it would at the time.
In many ways it's a similar situation except without the timetable.
In my opinion, the actual purpose of the Gaza deal for both Israel, Hamas, and the US is to ice out the Palestinian Authority and its European backers. The Palestinian Authority has been on the upswing lately gaining recognition from significant western countries. From an Israeli perspective, a strong Palestinian Authority could lead to a strong Palestine and more permanent territorial concessions. From a Hamas perspective, a truly strong Palestinian Authority would have no place for Hamas and would actively stamp them out. From an American perspective, Europe just recognized the Palestinian Authority as the true representative of the Palestinian people, yet they were curiously absent from the biggest Palestinian diplomatic move of the generation.
All parties involved would rather a quick rebuild of a pseudo-independent Gaza under a very light touch caretaker Arab government to hold an election as soon as possible so that Trump can take credit for it. This deal is very much not a Palestine deal, it is a Gaza deal, and inside of Gaza Hamas will retain a monopoly on violence and therefore be fine with Gazan elections as long as they can lap up the fountains of aid money. The Palestinian Authority and the West Bank more broadly is not a party to the deal, will not be under the transitional government, and will not be occupied by the ISF, so it can be safely excluded from the exit election without leaving a loose end.
I expect an election of dubious fairness in Gaza by 12/31/2027 and substantial Gaza <> West Bank (Hamas <> PA) confrontation to surround it
A thought-provoking analysis. Thank you
That isn't a US/UK declaration from 2005, that is a US/UK declaration from 2003 announcing that in June 2004 they would replace the Coalition Provisional Authority, an unelected occupational government headed by Paul Bremer, with a unelected technocratic Iraqi government headed by Ayad Allawi who was tasked with setting up the actual elected government via elections before the end of 2005. This actually did happen within the planned timeline, but we didn't know it would at the time.
In many ways it's a similar situation except without the timetable.
Would you bet on elections within 2 years in Palestine?
Qualified yes.
In my opinion, the actual purpose of the Gaza deal for both Israel, Hamas, and the US is to ice out the Palestinian Authority and its European backers. The Palestinian Authority has been on the upswing lately gaining recognition from significant western countries. From an Israeli perspective, a strong Palestinian Authority could lead to a strong Palestine and more permanent territorial concessions. From a Hamas perspective, a truly strong Palestinian Authority would have no place for Hamas and would actively stamp them out. From an American perspective, Europe just recognized the Palestinian Authority as the true representative of the Palestinian people, yet they were curiously absent from the biggest Palestinian diplomatic move of the generation.
All parties involved would rather a quick rebuild of a pseudo-independent Gaza under a very light touch caretaker Arab government to hold an election as soon as possible so that Trump can take credit for it. This deal is very much not a Palestine deal, it is a Gaza deal, and inside of Gaza Hamas will retain a monopoly on violence and therefore be fine with Gazan elections as long as they can lap up the fountains of aid money. The Palestinian Authority and the West Bank more broadly is not a party to the deal, will not be under the transitional government, and will not be occupied by the ISF, so it can be safely excluded from the exit election without leaving a loose end.
I expect an election of dubious fairness in Gaza by 12/31/2027 and substantial Gaza <> West Bank (Hamas <> PA) confrontation to surround it
Sounds like we need a Polymarket....